My English Soccer Prediction Group - very occasional remarks

For two seasons now, since 2013 or round about then I've been in a group that guesses the outcomes of matches in the three highest divisions of English football. Interesting. We do it by uploading spreadsheets containing our guesses. Many of the 8 to 10 involved have known each other since university days, so if you comment online, you might ignite some venom from an old grudge in the 1980s. Tread carefully. Their favorite teams from lower divisions are included, which helps keep interest high.

I am North American, so I simply get to tag along, which suits me, too, since I'm learning so much.

What I haven't done is come out of the secret footballer closet and say why my predictions are so abominable sometimes. Okay, I do check the odds and my gut instincts are pretty good by now, but sometimes I commit a clattering error. I'm informed of this the next time I'm down round the pub and two of the Predictathon players from Brighton and Birmingham who live with me on a Spanish island tell me as much, shaking their heads.

Take this weekend, for example. As a non-European, I have had to bone up on what affects the final outcome of a game you predict. That's me: someone who at age 40, 11 years ago, had virtually no knowledge about the sport. Yes, I have very vague memories of standing in a European living room of some Irish/English guy named Ken Cronin in 1990 or 1992 or 1994 or 1996 or 1998 or so thinking: wow that young English guy IS good. Beckham or something. Or seeing about 3 of the key matches when France "went through" in 1998. Wow, Zinedine Zidane, amazing. Whatever. I was a long-distance runner and enjoyed basketball and baseball. But I essentialy knew nothing about tactics and close to nothing about what the rules really were. Away win, diving, relegation playoffs.

By 2004 and 2006 all that had changed.

In 2004 the Greek restaurant owner and his staff and family downstairs from our flat in Hamburg went running out of their tavern, screaming, dancing, ecstatic, becuase their motley crew had won the European Championships under a German manager. All done as complete underdogs. Okay, of course I remember how Denmark did that long, long ago in the mid-1990s, too. But I was so disinterested, I did little more than glance for seconds at some newspaper headline on the subway and thought, okay, fine. Good for them.

In 2006 Germany hosted the whole World Cup and finished 3rd and I was caught up in this amazing display of national allegiance to the team, love of sport, international understanding, Australians streaming to their game being held in Hamburg, all laughing, in a great mood, supporting their continent. And I really began to catch onto what was going on with the game. I knew what kind of timing, pace and intelligence it takes for David Odonkor to be "released" for a forward sprint and send in the deft cross or even score himself vs. Poland, what midfielders were best at vying for physical (rebound) position and control the flow of the game around the midfield stripe. The triangle-shaped one-touch passing of the Spaniards to befuddle opponents and twist legs into knots. Playing long balls over good defenders to neutralize their physical prowess, a concept now popular in Germany as "Anzahl überspielter Gegner" (number of defenders overtaken by a pass). I was becoming a football nerd in Europe.

Now to my most recent predictions and one or two interspersed sentences to explain the thought process behind them.

Liverpool: I am parochial, I know people who went there and did well, like Didi Hamann, great player, great sense of humor. But I also remember former Dortmunder Nuri Sahin being placed out of position by Brendan Rodgers, and it made no sense to me. I know Rodgers is good, but I don't particularly like his brand of coaching. It is fine, sure, but there are folks like Simeone at Atletico who just grate on my nerves. So I just come out and predict against their manager, not their players, not always, whenever I can, but not against the odds. Young Moreno, and a Henderson. Gerrard, Super Mario Balotteli, Raheem Sterling. That includes quality, and though people fear they are impotent up front, I think they will win, if only by one goal.

I will go down to the pub for the 4 p.m. game and hope Aston Villa appears on one of the screens. Chelsea were tame last time, and I always dislike players like Oscar if they haven't got energy, vigor and only play in a flashy manner, so that is why, though Villa are strong away, I can't see them hurting Chelsea without Christian Benteke recovered from injury, not to mention badly injured Kozak coming back to deftly dribble and also score.

Another guess I made was based on my not liking the form, shape or style of Tottenham Hotspur. Especially if hustling players (think Ivica Olic) like Lewis Holtby don't get enough playing time. The Kyle Walker bravado kinda guy, that is the Tottenham fit. Too bad he's out, but he is a kind of over-muscled chugga player who will run out of steam too soon in a fast-paced match. A pure team player with style like Holtby, that is not the brand of player which does well in the Premiere League. Thank goodness Lewis Holtby is back in Germany, to strengthen hapless Hamburg.

Same for Kagawa. There is something strange about a "team" which cannot integrate such a great player like him, which Manchester United failed to do. There you go, can't change it. And now to the guesses.

Who will ever know what little fact made me say "2:1" - after looking at recent form on soccerbase.com, I often think that had I followed my gut instinct, it would have turned out better.

One correct guess = 3 points, getting the result = 1, and wrong guesses = 0.

Sat 27th September, 2014	Liverpool	2	1	Everton
	Chelsea	2	1	Aston Villa
	Crystal Palace	1	2	Leicester
	Hull	1	2	Man City
	Man Utd	2	1	West Ham
	Southampton	1	0	QPR
	Sunderland	1	1	Swansea
	Arsenal	3	1	Tottenham
	Bolton	2	1	Derby
	Bristol  City	2	2	MK Dons
	Coventry	1	2	Preston
	Exeter	0	1	Bury
Sun 28th September	West Brom	1	0	Burnley
Mon 29th September	Stoke	2	1	Newcastle

It's a past-time and nothing more, but makes for good talk and cheer among us, even with me as a relative newcomer welcomed by Rob to join Penny, Graeme, Simon, Bob, sometimes Graham.

Update from 2019

We continued on into the Predictathon's 16th year. It is my 7th season. My great moment (so far, mind you) was tying with the season winner Simon on the last day of the 2015-16 season.
What an accomplishment. Based on exact score outcomes, I was named runner-up and wear the silver medal with pride.

Prodigal Son Shinji Kagawa Returns to Dortmund with a Bang

I have an inkling: Having a Daily Fit, very very costly Angel di Maria and Marcus Rojos and their teammates might all bow out of Europa League contention, of course yielding to upstarts like Aston Villa, while the new coach is nearing an irreversible flood stage of "River of Talent" Blindness in the wake (get it?) of seeing Shinji Kagawa's return debut in Germany yesterday.

Okay, enough stream-of-consciusness. The plain facts.

After a two-year walk through the wilderness with the very occasional oasis, the services of long-suffering Shinji Kagawa were finally re-acquired by BVB and the Japanese national made his home stadium debut yesterday at Borussia Park to neatly slot in a goal for the traditional coal-mining region club. He also added a butter-soft, beautifully timed and deftly executed assist in the Dortmund club's 3-1 win over Freiburg. Kagawa had demonstrated that kind of presence and brilliant passing on the ManU summer US tour http://tinyurl.com/qywfarb and in the Premiere League but only when given an unqualified, no strings attached chance to. Short-term memory: his pass late in the Real Madrid game on August 2 to Chicharito was fabulous, and Hernandez knew it, giving Shinji all the credit. For one thing: ManU only needed to play and integrate Kagawa for more than 2 matches in a row (shortsightedness) and they would have never finished in that now deserved "only" 7th place spot - leaving them fuming that they have only "two shots at silver" after only a few weeks of their 2014-2015 campaign.

ManU fans are constantly harping on their prayer wheel that Rooney gives it everything he has for the team. Hmm. That is too undifferentiated. He also gives it less when it would help the team, but - ahem - strengthen a player vying for a deserved No. 10 spot, even if his team suffers for it. Just analyze the video when Valencia was on the pitch with Kagawa: how often did the two hook up and give the ball back and forth?
How many times not?
Neutral voice: "Kagawa could be open all day right in front of Rooney and more times than not Rooney will attempt a much more difficult pass." http://tinyurl.com/o4xmo88

With a little team support and endurance on the part of the trainer team, he would be a headline player sometimes, and a deserved regular almost all the time.

Change to the Continent: Now all signs so far indicate he will be a valuable marquee player, a substitute sometimes, too, no doubt, but will have the space to fulfill his promise and expectations in the right context - in the good hands of Jürgen Klopp, master trainer. If this doesn't happen, it would surprise me.

Of course you can say the mix was wrong, or you can say Manchester United were profligate or hanging onto old stars, or favoring Rooney, as always, or whatever. Rebuilding? Or you could just watch for a few hours and comment like Lucille Ball: "Ricky, they play like a bunch of ballerinas, they dive and cheat their way to victory, and the coach hasn't got that kind of behavior under control. Ricky, if the captain, doesn't get, how should the team get it - it's just like your band, right?" Wonder when that culture will change.

If you see Max Kruse and his playing style, you might also wonder, despite all that he does, whether he will ever mix in with a team like the Nationalelf. He was the dominant player on a star-studded Borrussia Mönchengladbach http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borussia_M%C3%B6nchengladbach#Current_squad side yesterday, but nevertheless, somehow it is the chemistry which counts. With Lucien Favre, Max Kruse is in good hands and a threat with his mobility, selfless passing and good scorring. Will he be given a twin-attacking role by Joachim Löw, like the beautiful pairing he now is with Raffael? One would hope this is possible.

With Moyes and with Alex Ferguson, Shinji Kagawa was without a doubt in less than good hands.